Maratona eleitoral alemã arranca com vitória da CDU no Sarre
O
primeiro teste eleitoral ao “efeito Schulz” não terá tido um
resultado favorável aos sociais-democratas.
PÚBLICO 26 de Março
de 2017, 17:16
Angela Merkel fez
campanha por Annegret Kramp-Karrenbaue no Sarre.Foto
Angela Merkel fez
campanha por Annegret Kramp-Karrenbaue no Sarre. LUSA/RONALD WITTEK
Os
democratas-cristãos da chanceler Angela Merkel serão os vencedores
das eleições deste domingo no estado federado alemão do Sarre. De
acordo com uma projecção da televisão pública ARD, a CDU terá
alcançado 41% dos votos, contra 29,5% dos sociais-democratas do SPD
e 13% do Die Linke.
O partido populista
de direita Alternativa para a Alemanha (AfD, na sigla germânica),
terá conquistado 6% dos votos. Os Verdes alemães terão conseguido
4,5% dos votos, enquanto os liberais do FDP obtiveram 3%.
Habitualmente, as
eleições num dos mais pequenos estados alemães não despertariam
grande atenção além-fronteiras. No entanto, a campanha no Sarre
conquistou interesse por um súbito avanço do SPD nas sondagens
nacionais, após a escolha do antigo presidente do Parlamento
Europeu, Martin Schulz, para candidato a chanceler nas eleições
gerais de Setembro. A nível nacional, Schulz está agora
praticamente empatado com Merkel.
As eleições no
Sarre eram vistas como um teste ao chamado "efeito Schulz".
No Sarre, as
sondagens de Janeiro davam um avanço de dez pontos à CDU da chefe
do governo estadual, Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer. Na semana da ida a
votos, a vantagem tinha caído para um ponto percentual. Agora, e de
acordo com as primeiras projecções, o muito "efeito Schulz"
não terá tido influência na eleição estadual, a primeira de três
(Schleswig-Holstein a 7 de Maio, Renânia do Norte-Vestefália a 14
do mesmo mês) antes das legislativas federais de 24 de Setembro, em
que Merkel volta a procurar a reeleição. Kramp-Karrenbauer deverá
ser reconduzida na liderança do executivo do Sarre.
3
takeaways from election in Germany’s Saarland
Merkel’s
CDU outperforms while SPD’s ‘Schulz effect’ disappoints.
By JANOSCH
DELCKER 3/26/17, 10:43 PM CET Updated 3/27/17, 4:34 AM CET
BERLIN —
Chancellor Angela Merkel’s conservatives scored a windfall victory
Sunday in the first of three regional elections ahead of Germany’s
national election in the fall, giving the party a much-needed boost
and buying the chancellor some time.
Merkel’s Christian
Democrats (CDU) won 40.7 percent of the votes in Saarland, around 11
percentage points ahead of the Social Democrats (SPD) at 29.6
percent, followed by far-left Die Linke at 12.9 percent and the
populist right-wing Alternative for Germany at 6.2 percent.
The result proved
that “the CDU can mobilize voters,” CDU State Premier Annegret
Kramp-Karrenbauer told public broadcaster ARD, adding: “This also
sends out an important signal for the CDU on the national level.”
Saarland was the
first election since the SPD named former European Parliament
President Martin Schulz as their candidate to challenge Merkel this
fall. The SPD has surged in national opinion polls and Sunday’s
state vote was a first test of the so-called “Schulz effect.”
Here are three
takeaways:
1. Muted ‘Schulz
effect’
At first blush,
Sunday’s result might look disastrous for the SPD: While the CDU
and SPD were running neck-and-neck in polls before the election, the
Social Democrats ended up with considerably fewer votes than
anticipated, around 11 percent points behind the CDU.
At the same time,
however, the party did indeed win over some new voters — it just
wasn’t enough.
“At the end of
January, we were still at 24 percent, and tonight we will likely
reach the result of the last regional election,” Schulz said on
Sunday evening, speaking to the party faithful in Berlin. In 2012,
the SPD reached 30.6 percent of the votes.
The message from SPD
during the next couple of days will likely be that Saarland was
mainly about state politics but that, nonetheless, the vote should
serve as a warning that much more campaigning needs to be done for
the SPD to win in September.
Is Merkel back in
pole position to retain her chancellorship in September?
“It’s a
long-distance run, not a sprint,” Schulz said.
2. A vote for a
‘grand coalition’ — against Die Linke
The only coalition
possible in Saarland after Sunday’s vote seems to be another ‘grand
coalition’ between the CDU and SPD. The conservatives have been in
power in the state for 18 years. Kramp-Karrenbauer took over from a
CDU predecessor in 2011 and since 2012 she has headed a ‘grand
coalition’ with the SPD.
Ahead of Sunday’s
vote, the SPD had sent out signals that it was willing to consider a
coalition with Die Linke instead, which would allow them to push
Kramp-Karrenbauer out of office even if she managed to win the most
votes in the state. Few, however, had expected the popular
Kramp-Karrenbauer to bring home such a strong result, which makes a
so-called “red-red” coalition in the state virtually impossible.
“During the last
couple of days, it became clear that the SPD would be willing to go
down the path of a red-red coalition. This mobilized voters,”
Kramp-Karrenbauer told ARD. “Today was a vote for a grand
coalition.”
And yet, there’s
one important thing to keep in mind…
3. It’s only
Saarland
Although the vote
attracted wide interest far beyond the state’s borders, the
election in rural Saarland isn’t the most important regional
election this year — that is yet to come.
With an electorate
of only around 800,000, Saarland is too small to offer a clear
picture of voting intentions of the roughly 61.5 million Germans who
are eligible to vote in the fall.
The next state
election is in Schleswig-Holstein on May 7, with about 2.3 million
people eligible to vote — but all eyes are on the vote in
North-Rhine Westphalia on May 14, which will be the most important
state election to watch this year, with 13 million voters.
Authors:
Janosch Delcker
Sem comentários:
Enviar um comentário