quarta-feira, 29 de março de 2017

BREXIT : There's no going back



May dá início ao divórcio e faz ameaça velada a Bruxelas
Sugestão de que a cooperação de segurança pode ser afectada caso o Reino Unido saia da UE sem um acordo ensombrou o dia, apesar de todos prometerem negociações “construtivas”.
Ana Fonseca Pereira

ANA FONSECA PEREIRA 29 de Março de 2017, 20:17

O primeiro dos 730 dias da contagem decrescente até ao “Brexit” começou com palavras tranquilizadoras e gestos de conciliação. A primeira-ministra britânica garantiu que o seu país quer continuar a ser “um amigo e aliado próximo” da União Europeia; o presidente do Conselho Europeu assumiu a tristeza por ver chegar este dia mas prometeu que os restantes 27 países vão assumir uma posição “construtiva” nas negociações. Depressa, porém, se instalou um tom crispado no vaivém de declarações entre Londres, Bruxelas e as restantes capitais europeias, perante a sugestão feita por Theresa May de que, se o país não conseguir um acordo de saída satisfatório, isso poderá prejudicar a cooperação em matéria de segurança e combate ao terrorismo.

A carta há muito prometida pelo Governo britânico foi entregue a Donald Tusk às 12h25, pondo simultaneamente fim a nove meses de expectativa e estipulando que, a menos que haja um acordo unânime em contrário, o Reino Unido sairá da UE a 29 de Março de 2019. “Não há qualquer razão para fazer de conta que este é um dia feliz, nem em Bruxelas, nem em Londres”, disse o presidente do Conselho, de semblante carregado e com a missiva de seis páginas na mão. Tusk afirmou que o “Brexit” deixou os restantes 27 “mais determinados e mais unidos”, mas acredita que ninguém vai sair a ganhar. “No essencial, estamos a falar de controlo de danos”, afirmou, explicando que a prioridade da UE será “minimizar os custos para os cidadãos, as empresas e os Estados-membros”.

À mesma hora, em Londres, May anunciava no Parlamento que o país acabava de enveredar por um caminho sem retorno – “O Reino Unido vai deixar a UE. Este é um momento histórico que não pode ter retrocesso”, afirmou, perante os aplausos de muitos dos deputados que há duas semanas a autorizaram a desencadear o processo de saída, cumprindo o mandato saído do referendo de 23 de Junho. Na sua intervenção e no debate que se prolongou por mais de três horas, a líder conservadora repetiu o essencial dos objectivos que traçou no seu discurso de Janeiro – a saída do mercado único europeu, a ambição de construir uma “parceira profunda e especial” com a UE, com quem quer também negociar um “acordo de livre comércio arrojado e ambicioso”.

A ninguém escapou, contudo, uma importante omissão. Desta vez, May não repetiu o aviso de que “nenhum acordo é melhor do que um mau acordo”, nem deixou subentendido (como tinha feito em Janeiro) que se Bruxelas lhe negar um acordo comercial o Reino Unido poderia adoptar uma política de dumping fiscal que lesaria a economia europeia. Na carta que endereçou a Bruxelas, insiste também que os dois lados devem negociar “de forma construtiva e respeitosa, num espírito de cooperação sincera” e escreveu por duas vezes que Londres não esquecerá as suas “obrigações enquanto Estado-membro que está de saída” – uma referência ao montante que o país poderá ter de desembolsar antes de concluir um acordo com a UE.

Duas notas dissonantes
Na mesma carta, porém, Theresa May insiste que o acordo para a saída deve ser negociado em simultâneo com “os termos da futura relação” entre os dois blocos, ignorando todos os avisos feitos em Bruxelas de que só depois de definidos os aspectos mais cruciais do divórcio se poderá discutir as bases de um acordo comercial ou as condições para um período de transição. Foi isso mesmo que a chanceler alemã, Angela Merkel, fez questão de reafirmar esta quarta-feira, na mesma declaração em que garantiu que os 27 assumirão uma postura “justa” nas negociações. “O Reino Unido e a UE, incluindo a Alemanha, criaram laços apertados ao longo dos anos. Temos de clarificar como podem esses laços ser desatados e temos de lidar com muitos direitos e obrigações associados à pertença à UE. Só depois poderemos falar sobre o futuro das nossas relações.

Mas se este finca-pé já era esperado, um outro fez soar os alarmes europeus assim que a carta começou a ser lida em pormenor. Nela, May liga explicitamente as relações comerciais que quer garantir com a UE após o “Brexit” à cooperação em matéria de segurança. E deixa uma ameaça “implícita e velada, mas muito clara para quem quiser ver”, escreveu o Politico: Se o Reino Unido deixar a UE sem conseguir um acordo satisfatório, não só as trocas comerciais vão passar a reger-se pelas regras da Organização Mundial de Comércio como, “em matéria de segurança, isso significaria que a cooperação na luta contra o crime e o terrorismo sairia enfraquecida”.

“Ela está realmente a dizer que a segurança do nosso país pode ser negociada como moeda de troca nestas negociações?”, indignou-se o deputado trabalhista Stephen Kinnock. Numa conferência conjunta em Bruxelas, o presidente do Parlamento Europeu, Antonio Tajani, e o responsável da instituição para as negociações, Guy Verhofstadt, também não esconderam o desagrado com aquilo a que um diplomata europeu citado pelo Guardian descreveu como “chantagem”. “Acho que a segurança dos nossos cidadãos é demasiado importante para que seja usada como moeda de troca nas negociações”, disse Verhofstadt.

Um porta-voz de Downing Street assegurou que não se trata de uma ameaça, mas da constatação de um facto: “Se sairmos da UE sem qualquer acordo, todos os mecanismos que enquadram a nossa presença na UE vão desaparecer, incluindo os de segurança”. Mas a ministra do Interior britânica, Amber Rudd, viria pôr ainda mais achas na fogueira ao afirmar que se o Reino Unido deixar a Europol, a agência de coordenação policial europeia “da qual é o principal contribuinte”, vai “levar consigo a informação que lhe pertence”.


Sexta-feira, Tusk vai divulgar a proposta com as linhas de orientação da UE para as negociações e na próxima semana o Parlamento Europeu aprova uma resolução em que assume uma postura dura face às exigências britânicas. A posição europeia só ficará fechada, no entanto, dentro de um mês, na cimeira que reunirá os restantes 27. No final da sua conferência de imprensa, Tusk garantiu que os europeus “agirão como um só”. E, numa primeira despedida aos britânicos, rematou: “O que posso dizer mais? Já sentimos a vossa falta. Obrigada e adeus”.  
There's no going back – May has burned the boats of a divided nation

Martin Kettle
Wednesday 29 March 2017 19.59 BST Last modified on Thursday 30 March 2017 01.00 BST

Like Aeneas fleeing from Troy on the shore of Italy, or Cortés on the coast of Mexico, it was a moment for the burning of the boats. On Wednesday Theresa May burned hers. But they were our boats too that she burned, Britain’s boats, boats in which, for half a century, postwar Britain has tried to reconcile its history and its future in Europe – and failed. For good or ill on both sides of the channel, Britain will not be returning to the European Union.

It doesn’t get more serious than that for this country. Yet it ended, as it began, with more of a whimper than a bang. As 1973 dawned, the Guardian reported that Britain had embarked on its membership of Europe without fireworks. “It was difficult to tell that anything of importance had occurred,” records the paper’s front page, “and a date which will be entered in the history books as long as histories of Britain are written, was taken by most people as a matter of course.”

Forty-four years later, as Britain began packing its bags to leave, there was perhaps more excitement among the political and journalistic classes. The most predictable front page of the year was the Daily Mail’s single word headline on Wednesday: “Freedom!” But the Guardian surely got the wider national mood more accurately: “Britain steps into the unknown.”

Politically, it was momentous. A version of the same resistance to continental encroachment that fired Henry VIII’s break with Rome 500 years ago has triumphed again. Out in the country, much as in 1973 or even 1534, people got on with life as usual. If they were delighted or anxious, they mostly didn’t show it. There were no crowds in the streets this time and no celebrations or protests to speak of either. People kept their feelings quiet. Trains ran. The stock market was unmoved. Rain came in from the west. As usual, a million people went to the doctor.

Nevertheless it was the most important and the most carefully choreographed day of Theresa May’s prime ministership, and she did her best to rise to the occasion. Her speech to the Commons was consensual and without a single triumphalist note. Only Sir Bill Cash on the leave side and the SNP’s Angus Robertson on remain’s managed to raise the emotional temperature in the chamber.

European council president Donald Tusk holds Theresa May’s article 50 letter at a Brussels news conference. Photograph: Yves Herman/Reuters
None of it affected the prime minister, however. In her letter to Donald Tusk there was a not so veiled threat to take UK defence and security commitments to Europe off the table if the EU forces too hard a bargain on single market access. If nothing else, that was proof of how badly May wants a deal in her own prescribed timeframe of two years. What a gambler the vicar’s daughter has turned out to be.

But in the Commons there was no Thatcher-style warrior talk about days of destiny or independence. Instead May’s chosen tone was soothing and respectful, both to the EU and to British voters who support it. Her audience was in the capitals of Europe, not the Commons chamber. She sought a “deep and special” partnership with Europe. Her peroration contained the word “together” no fewer than six times. At times it was hard to realise that Britain is walking away, so often did May praise the EU, wish it well and invoke its values.

There was very practical domestic political reason for this emollience too. Despite her wish for the country to come together on the issue, Britain is still deeply divided over Europe. Nine months ago, 17.4 million Britons voted to leave, while 16.1 million voted to remain. A YouGov opinion poll this week suggested that views haven’t changed much. Neither side of the arguments regrets the stance it took last year. Remainers are beginning to accept that there’s no way back. But May, unlike the newspapers that urge her forward and constantly try to make her into a second Thatcher, does not choose to grind the faces of the 48% who voted remain into the dust.

Leaving the EU is “this generation’s chance to shape a brighter future for our country”, said May. It offers “a chance to step back and ask ourselves what kind of country we want to be”.

That sounds very benign and consensual, as it is supposed to, until you realise that “this generation” is in fact not a fixed thing. Britain is divided not united across its generations, including Europe. In the YouGov poll this week, 65% of young people aged 18-24 say it was wrong to vote leave, against just 12% who think it was right. At the other end of the age spectrum, the over-65s say the opposite, with 62% saying it was right to leave and 31% saying it was wrong.

So this isn’t really “this generation’s chance”. In fact it’s the older generation’s chance to break a relationship with Europe that the younger generation wants to keep. Looking backwards has defeated looking forwards – or has until the leave voters die out and, perhaps, leave the new majority more pro-European. At the end of her speech May invoked a misty-eyed vision of “a stronger, fairer, better Britain – a Britain our children and grandchildren are proud to call home”. The problem, though, is that leaving the EU isn’t going to produce that kind of Britain. As the historian Anthony Barnett put it: “Brexit is government of the old, by the old, for the old.”

As she signed the letter triggering Britain’s exit from the EU on Tuesday, May had posed beneath a portrait of Sir Robert Walpole, often described as Britain’s first prime minister. Eurosceptics think highly of Walpole because he prioritised getting extremely rich over European entanglements. In one of his most quoted remarks, Walpole boasted to Queen Caroline in 1734 that “there are fifty thousand men slain this year in Europe, and not one Englishman”.

What the Eurosceptics always forget, though, is that Walpole served a king, George II, who was ruler not just of Britain but of Hanover and was therefore entangled in Europe whether he wanted to be or not. It was always thus for this island. The Guardian’s striking front page showed the British jigsaw piece removed from the European whole. But real countries do not move. They stay where they are. Britain will be part of Europe, one way or another, until the end of the world.

Brexit: EU condemns May’s ‘blackmail’ over security cooperation
Prime minister’s remarks in article 50 letter prompt reply that other member states will not accept security collaboration as bargaining chip

Anushka Asthana, Daniel Boffey, Heather Stewart and Peter Walker
Wednesday 29 March 2017 21.42 BST Last modified on Thursday 30 March 2017 01.00 BST

Theresa May warned European leaders that failure to reach a comprehensive Brexit agreement will result in a weakening of cooperation on crime and security, triggering accusations that her remarks amounted to blackmail.

Senior figures in Brussels complained about the prime minister’s remarks, while critics in Westminster also piled in, arguing that the prime minister had issued a “blatant threat” and was treating security as a “bargaining chip” in negotiations.

The long-anticipated article 50 letter, hand-delivered by Sir Tim Barrow, the UK’s EU ambassador, to the European council president, Donald Tusk, stressed that the British government’s prime desire was to maintain a “deep and special partnership” with the EU27.

But the Conservative leader also suggested that a final divorce agreement would need to take in both economic and security cooperation and issued a clear warning about the potential fallout if the talks failed.

“If, however, we leave the European Union without an agreement, the default position is that we would have to trade on World Trade Organisation terms. In security terms, a failure to reach agreement would mean our cooperation in the fight against crime and terrorism would be weakened,” she wrote.

The European parliament’s Brexit coordinator, Guy Verhofstadt, responded that MEPs would not accept any attempt by the UK to use its strength in the military and intelligence fields as a bargaining chip, underlining the complexities that the prime minister will face in achieving a smooth exit from the EU.

“I tried to be a gentleman towards a lady, so I didn’t even use or think about the use of the word blackmail,” Verhofstadt said. “I think the security of our citizens is far too important to start a trade-off of one and the other. Both are absolutely necessary in the future partnership without bargaining this one against the other.”

Gianni Pittella, the leader of the Socialist bloc in the European parliament, said: “It would be outrageous to play with people’s lives in these negotiations. This has not been a good start by Theresa May. It feels like blackmail, but security is a good for all our citizens and not a bargaining chip. We still hope that Theresa May can get back on the right track … This was not a smart move.”

The government will follow the triggering of article 50 by publishing a white paper on Thursday that will lay the foundations for a “great repeal bill” designed to bring the body of EU legislation back into the British system. Sources said the aim was to ensure that the same rules and laws applied the day after the UK left the EU.

The prime minister’s stark language in the letter contrasted with her conciliatory tone when she told MPs that the article 50 divorce letter had been delivered. May told MPs that her government would strive to ensure that Britain remained a best friend and close ally to the rest of the EU.

There was also a frank admission about the negative impact of Brexit in the UK. “We understand that there will be consequences for the UK of leaving the EU. We know that we will lose influence over the rules that affect the European economy. We know that UK companies that trade with the EU will have to align with rules agreed by institutions of which we are no longer a part, just as we do in other overseas markets. We accept that,” she said.

The EU’s chief Brexit negotiator, Guy Verhofstadt, told a news conference: ‘I think the security of our citizens is far too important to start a trade-off.’ Photograph: Yves Herman/Reuters
The prime minister said she understood that Wednesday was “a day of celebration for some and disappointment for others” – a point underlined as passionate campaigners on either side of the debate rose after her statement to put forward their arguments.

She was clear that, in her eyes, there was now no way to stop Brexit, adding that her government was acting on the “democratic will of the British people”. She added: “This is an historic moment from which there can be no turning back. Britain is leaving the European Union. We are going to make our own decisions and our own laws. We are going to take control of the things that matter most to us.”

In the letter, the prime minister admitted that Britain faced a “momentous” task in fully extricating itself from the EU by the spring of 2019, but claimed it was feasible. However, her request to negotiate a comprehensive trade agreement alongside withdrawal discussions was soon knocked back by the German chancellor, Angela Merkel. “The negotiations must first clarify how we will disentangle our interlinked relationship” before talks about the future relationship could begin, Merkel said in Berlin.

The European commission president, Jean-Claude Juncker, was more clearcut when he said the UK’s decision to quit the block was a “choice they will regret one day”.

Other leading European figures struck a more emollient note. A sombre Tusk, speaking shortly after receiving article 50, said: “We already miss you. Thank you and goodbye.”

Amber Rudd, the home secretary, insisted that “no threat” was being issued by the UK and that trade and security talks were separate, but added that security cooperation was a reality of EU membership and would need to be negotiated after Brexit.

“If you look at something like Europol, we are the largest contributor to Europol. So if we left Europol, then we would take our information – this is in the legislation – with us. The fact is, the European partners want us to keep our information there, because we keep other European countries safe as well,” Rudd said.

In response to the claims of blackmail, and to Merkel’s comments about the timing of talks, a government source said that this was the “start of a negotiation” so it was no surprise that people were taking tough positions.

Tim Farron, the Lib Dem leader, said the hint that security issues could be wrapped together with trade talks read like a “blatant threat” to withdraw cooperation if the EU failed to offer a good enough trade deal.

Yvette Cooper, the Labour chair of parliament’s home affairs select committee, said it would be “dangerous” for Britain to leave the EU without a security agreement in place. “She should not be trying to use this as a bargaining chip in the negotiations. This is not a threat to the rest of Europe – it would be a serious act of self-harm.”

Lord Kirkhope, a Conservative peer who used to be the party’s spokesman on justice and home affairs in Brussels, argued that the exchange of intelligence and security information within the EU was “critical”. “We cannot allow there to be any gaps or delays. You cannot have security as a bargaining chip,” he said, reasoning that the government ought to prioritise the issue at the start of the talks. If not, it could end up as a “casualty at the end”, he said. “The problem with security is you can’t afford that.”

A government source said the government was only going to be negotiating over security issues linked to the EU, including Europol, extradition agreements, and an EU-wide information alert system for wanted and suspected criminals. Talks would not include anything linked to Britain’s Nato membership, or longstanding relationships between intelligence services, it was emphasised.

The Labour leader, Jeremy Corbyn, responded by promising that the government would be “held to account at every stage of the negotiations”. He told MPs: “The British people made a decision to leave the European Union, and Labour respects that decision. The next steps along this journey are the most crucial, and if the prime minister is to unite the country … The government needs to listen, consult and represent the whole country, not just hardline Tory ideologues on her own benches.” He promised to oppose any threats to turn Britain into a “low-wage tax haven”.


Dominic Grieve MP, a leading supporter of Open Britain and the chair of the intelligence and security committee, said the row over security underlined the need for May to secure a deal. “The prime minister’s letter shows leaving the EU with no deal would not just hurt our economy, but also our security, which relies on close cooperation with Europe.”

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