Right looks to TV pundit to counter Portugal’s left turn.

POLITICO classifica Marcelo como “TV pundit” ou seja “Cabeça Falante Televisa”

OVOODOCORVO

Portugal’s Right hopes to claw back power via presidency

Right looks to TV pundit to counter Portugal’s left turn.

By PAUL AMES 1/20/16, 5:30 AM CET

LISBON — The winner of Sunday’s presidential election in Portugal could have a crucial role in maintaining stability as the two-month-old Socialist government struggles to balance its eurozone commitments with demands from its far-left backers.

Although political power resides squarely with parliament and the prime minister, the role of head of state has taken on added significance in a country polarized by years of economic crisis and austerity policies.

Prime Minister António Costa will find it easier to push through an anti-austerity agenda if a Socialist sympathizer replaces Aníbal Cavaco Silva, a conservative who is stepping down as president after two five-year terms.

The center-right, booted into opposition after October’s parliamentary elections, is backing popular TV pundit Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa as a potential counterbalance to the Left’s grip on parliament. Presenting himself as a moderate consensus candidate, he is way ahead of the other nine contenders in opinion polls, which predict he’ll win outright with over 50 percent of the vote.

If nobody breaks 50 percent, the top two will face off in a second-round on Valentine’s Day. Rebelo de Sousa might then face a tougher challenge from a leftist unity candidate — though at the moment there are no fewer than five candidates linked to the Socialist Party (PS), plus two backed by government allies in the Portuguese Communist Party (PCP) and the Left Bloc (BE).

Although the head of state’s role is partly ceremonial, the president is no mere ribbon-cutter. From their pastel pink palace in Lisbon’s riverside Belém neighborhood, Portuguese presidents wield real influence. They can challenge government bills, ordering reviews by the Constitutional Court or demanding a second vote — with tougher conditions — in parliament.

Some left-wing candidates, for example, say they would have sent back Portugal’s latest bank bailout, approved last month by the government with support from the center-right opposition with a bill of up to €3 billion for taxpayers. Potentially most worryingly for Costa, presidents can dismiss the government and call new elections if they perceive risks to the “normal operation” of democracy.

Here’s a look at who’s in the running for Portugal’s top job:

Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa

Francisco Leong/Agence France-Presse via Getty Images

Francisco Leong | AFP/Getty

Urbane, witty and elegant, Rebelo de Sousa was a TV star before giving up his prime-time Sunday evening punditry slot to run for president.

However, he has a political pedigree: One of the founders of the center-right Social Democratic Party (PSD), he helped draft Portugal’s constitution in 1976, briefly held ministerial office and for a time in the 1990s was a not-very-successful leader of the PSD in opposition.

Most polls make him a first-round shoo-in. The latest in the weekly newspaper Expresso on Saturday gave him 54.8 percent. But Rebelo de Sousa has suffered as the prime target of sniping by all the others. Anxious to win middle-of-the-road votes, he’s alienated some core supporters by distancing himself from the painful economic reforms enacted by the previous PSD-led government.

The 67-year-old keeps fit by taking year-round daily plunges in the Atlantic from his home in the beach suburb of Cascais. He’ll be hoping Sunday’s vote won’t be a cold bath for his political comeback.

António Sampaio da Nóvoa

Francisco Leong/Agence France-Presse via Getty Images

Francisco Leong | AFP/Getty

This silver-haired university professor is aiming to emerge as the leading left-of-center challenger.

At 60, Sampaio de Nóvoa is a newcomer. He barely dabbled in politics before declaring his presidential challenge last year, concentrating instead on a distinguished academic career that included stints at universities in Paris, Geneva and New York before he became rector of the University of Lisbon.

He’s captured the support of Socialist Party heavyweights, including previous presidents Mário Soares and Jorge Sampaio, but the party has not offered him formal backing.

On the left of the center-left, he pledges to lead “change in Portugal and contribute to change in Europe.” The absence of any political experience and a charisma deficiency are counting against him.

Maria de Belém Roseira

Jose Manuel Ribeiro/Agence France-Presse via Getty Images

Jose Manuel Ribeiro | AFP/Getty

A veteran Socialist lawmaker, Roseira is the only candidate with lasting experience of high office. She was minister for health and equality from 1995 to 2000.

Although she was Socialist Party president up to 2014, the party is not giving her official support — something that may be linked to a history of prickly relations with the prime minister, Costa.

Aged 66, Roseira has proved a feisty campaigner. She is a political moderate with a worthy record of works in health care, social services and woman’s rights, but struggles to overcome a lightweight image.

Saturday’s Expresso poll put her and Sampaio de Nóvoa almost neck-and-neck, each with around 16 percent.

Edgar Silva

Manuel De Almeida/European Pressphoto Agency

Manuel De Almeida | EPA

The Communist is the candidate with the most interesting backstory. Silva, 53, was a Catholic priest until 1997 when he swapped his prayer books for the red flag.

In the clergy, Silva campaigned against child poverty and sexual exploitation on his native Madeira island. He also developed an intense animosity towards conservative politicians who have long run the Atlantic island region.

“Father Edgar” gave the Communists their best-ever results in elections to the regional parliament, where he’s served for 20 years.

Silva follows the party’s old-school line: He wants Portugal out of NATO, insisting membership of the alliance is unconstitutional, and warns the eurozone he’ll end Portugal’s “submission and subordination” to outsiders.

With party backing, Silva has the biggest campaign budget, but polls suggest he’s unlikely to break 5 percent.

Marisa Matias

Paulo Cunha/European Pressphoto Agency

Paulo Cunha | EPA

The Left Bloc scored its best-ever result in October’s parliamentary elections thanks to a campaign led by a likeable young woman demanding investment in health care, education and peace.

It’s seeking to repeat that winning formula with 39-year-old Matias. A lawmaker in the European Parliament, she’s aiming to become Portugal’s youngest — and first female — head of state.

Matias says a left-wing president is needed to underpin the “new political cycle” ushered in by the ousting of the center-right government. “We need a new generation in politics to inject fresh life into our institutions,” she told correspondents last week.

Vice-President of the Party of the European Left in Brussels, Matias says she’ll ensure Portugal stands up to eurozone dictates should she win the presidency.

That’s unlikely. Polls suggest she’s far from emulating the electoral breakthroughs of allies like Spain’s Podemos or Syriza in Greece.

The others

A street-paver turned reality TV star; a millionaire medic; and the rags-to-riches founder of an international engineering firm make up the remaining Socialist-linked candidates.

The field is completed by a former deputy mayor of Porto crusading against corruption, and a motivational speaker who once taught soccer coach José Mourinho and wants to make Portugal a winning team.

None are expected to garner more than 2 percent of the vote.

Authors:

Paul Ames