Disillusionment Plays Big Role in Greek Election

Disillusionment Plays Big Role in Greek Election

Many voters are undecided or plan to abstain ahead of Sunday’s vote, mainly to Syriza’s detriment

By NEKTARIA STAMOULI And STELIOS BOURAS

Sept. 16, 2015 5:30 p.m. ET http://www.wsj.com/articles/disillusionment-plays-big-role-in-greek-election-1442439030?mod=WSJ_article_EditorsPicks_2

ATHENS—This Sunday, when Greeks are called to the polls for the third time this year, Giota Kontostanou will stay home.

The 30-year-old waitress and mother of two voted for the left-wing Syriza party in January, helping it sweep to power to battle the austerity budget policies demanded by the country’s European creditors. She backed the party again when its leader, Alexis Tsipras, called a referendum on creditors’ demands in July.

Syriza’s revolt failed: Mr. Tsipras resigned as prime minister last month after signing up to a new, austerity-heavy international bailout, under heavy pressure from Germany and other lenders. Whoever follows him will have to follow the stringent economic policies in the package.

Mrs. Kontostanou, full of antiausterity passion in January, can’t see the point of voting now. “It isn’t going to make a difference anyway,” she said.

Greece’s snap election on Sunday, the latest act in the country’s long debt crisis, hinges on whether Mr. Tsipras can mobilize Syriza voters like Mrs. Kontostanou again, despite their disillusionment.

With three days to go, opinion polls put Syriza and the main conservative party, New Democracy, neck and neck, with neither expected to win a clear majority.

The polls also show that up to 20% of Greeks are still undecided or intend to abstain—and that a disproportionate number of them are former Syriza supporters. That gives New Democracy a good shot at returning to power, only eight months after its crushing January defeat.

“Abstention is mainly harming Syriza, so whether these people decide to head to ballots will determine the outcome of the elections,” said Thomas Gerakis, head of opinion-polling company Marc.

Twice this year, Greeks voted overwhelmingly against more fiscal belt-tightening but found themselves stuck with it anyway. The alternative—national bankruptcy and exit from Europe’s common currency, the euro—was too frightening, even for the antiausterity firebrand Mr. Tsipras.

The difference this time is that both Syriza and New Democracy are promising to implement the new bailout agreement—while asking lenders to soften its edges. That consensus, if it holds, potentially offers Greece the prospect of political calm, which the country and its battered economy badly need.

The latest, three-year bailout program, ratified in August, offers Greece €86 billion ($97 billion) in loans in return for carrying out sharp spending cuts, tax increases and broad economic overhauls mandated by the rest of the eurozone and the International Monetary Fund.

If Syriza wins, its commitment to the bailout plan could soon be tested by its various unruly factions, many of which remain ideologically opposed to austerity measures.

“Despite his recent U-turn, Mr. Tsipras’s priority will be to keep his party together, not to implement the terms of the bailout,” said Wolfango Piccoli, a managing director at New York-based political risk consultancy Teneo Intelligence. “Party unity remains fragile, and frictions could re-emerge soon after voting day.”

If Syriza loses, analysts say it is likely to revert to its previous antiausterity stance, making life difficult for a center-right government.

New Democracy, in government from mid-2012 until this January, has a mixed track record already on implementing overhauls under Greece’s previous bailout program. In his campaign, New Democracy leader Vagelis Meimarakis has pledged to defend tax exemptions for the farming lobby.

Mr. Tsipras has said that if elected, he would continue fighting with the country’s creditors for better terms on certain issues that remain open under the bailout, such as labor legislation.

Opinion polls show many Greeks would like a coalition government of the two biggest parties, so that they are both forced to take responsibility for completing the bailout program.

But there is strong resistance within each party to such collaboration. “For both Mr. Tsipras and Mr. Meimarakis, this would make it difficult to keep their respective parties under control,” Mr. Piccoli said.

Instead, the first-place finisher is expected to seek a coalition with the centrist To Potami (The River) party, the center-left Pasok, or both.

The national feeling of frustration could push many Greeks to cast a protest vote.

The fascist movement Golden Dawn is in third place with about 7% support, although both parties have ruled it out as a coalition partner.

The Centrist Union, under chat-show host Vassilis Leventis, could well enter parliament for the first time, after 14 failed attempts. Mr. Leventis is widely seen as a political clown for his eccentric television appearances, including inflammatory comments such as calling on God to give cancer to all Greek political leaders.

Most opinion polls show that Popular Unity, a breakaway faction from Syriza that objected to Mr. Tsipras’s U-turn on austerity, is set to enter parliament, but with little more than the required 3% threshold. Popular Unity’s open call for Greece to leave the euro has limited its appeal.

Write to Nektaria Stamouli at nektaria.stamouli@wsj.com and Stelios Bouras at stelios.bouras@wsj.com