Enquanto os efeitos devastadores do clima se fazem sentir em Portugal e no Reino Unido, ainda é possível ler OPINIÃO em Portugal onde estes sérios temas na sua associação com o Aquecimento Global, são tratados com a maior das ligeirezas e pseudo - ironia relativizadora ...
Aconselho-os a LER o artigo de Nicholas Stern HOJE no GUARDIAN(em baixo )
António Sérgio Rosa de Carvalho
OVOODOCORVO
Vento forte junta-se à chuva no Reino Unido,
provocando um morto
AGÊNCIAS 13/02/2014 -
Mau tempo deixou mais de 130 mil pessoas sem electricidade.
Um homem morreu, provavelmente electrocutado, quando tentava
retirar uma árvore de cima de cabos de distribuição eléctrica em Wiltshire, no
Sudoeste de Inglaterra. Os ventos fortes são agora outra preocupação, a par das
cheias, no Reino Unido.
Foram registadas rajadas de vento de mais de 160 quilómetros
por hora na parte ocidental de Inglaterra e País de Gales (uma rajada chegou
mesmo a 174 km/h ),
com as autoridades a decretar o alerta vermelho, o grau máximo, para ventos.
No final do dia de quarta-feira, havia mais de 130 mil
pessoas sem electricidade, segundo a associação que representa as empresas de
fornecimento de energia. Engenheiros já restabeleceram as ligações em 145 mil
casas e empresas, acrescentou a associação, e continuavam a trabalhar.
Por outro lado, as cheias não dão sinais de abrandar no
Sudoeste de Inglaterra. O responsável do exército que coordena as operações de
salvamento e recuperação falou à Reuters de uma “crise natural quase sem
paralelo”, e os serviços de emergência disseram ter já retirado mais de 850
pessoas das suas casas ao longo do Tamisa, cujas águas subiram, em alguns
locais, ao nível mais alto dos últimos 60 anos. Há registo de inundações em
mais de 5800 propriedades.
O mau tempo levou à interrupção da circulação de comboios em
algumas zonas, com árvores levadas pelo vento a cair nos carris. Auto-estradas
e pontes tiveram também a circulação interrompida.
O primeiro-ministro, David Cameron, prometeu que o dinheiro
não seria um problema na ajuda, mas foi criticado por ter demorado a reagir,
apenas quando as águas do Tamisa já estavam a subir perto de Londres.
“Este não é um incidente que vá passar a curto-prazo”, disse
o director da agência do Governo que gere as crises naturais, numa conferência
de imprensa em Londres. “Este é um acontecimento excepcional. As maiores chuvas
em Janeiro desde 1776 – e pensamos que é provável que a chuva de Dezembro, Janeiro
e Fevereiro seja a mais alta dos últimos 250 anos.”
A área afectada pelas cheias é semelhante à das cheias de
2003, e nos próximos dias pode chegar a níveis registados pela última vez há 70
anos. Esta quinta-feira, 16 localidades estavam com avisos de alerta máximo
para cheias, um nível que implica perigo de morte, e havia centenas de avisos e
alertas para cheias menos graves. Esperava-se ainda que na sexta-feira e o
fim-de-semana houvesse um agravamento das chuvas.
A associação britânica de seguradoras estimou os custos dos
danos em 429 milhões de libras (quase 520 mil euros) e anunciou que só fará
nova estimativa quando as águas começarem a descer.
Um antigo ministro do Ambiente, John Gummer, um conservador
que lidera o comité sobre Alterações Climáticas na Câmara dos Lordes, disse que
os efeitos do mau tempo foram exacerbados por 30 anos de desinvestimento e
gestão mal organizada da resposta às cheias.
Peritos dizem que as cheias deverão ter efeitos na
recuperação económica britânica, mas não serão suficientemente graves para a
pôr em causa, garantem.
Flooding and storms in UK are
clear signs of climate change, says Lord Stern
Author of 2006 report says
recent weather is part of international pattern and demonstrates urgent need to
cut carbon emissions
Conal Urquhart
theguardian.com, Thursday 13 February 2014 / http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2014/feb/13/flooding-storms-uk-climate-change-lord-stern
The devastating floods and storms sweeping Britain are clear
indications of the dangers of climate change, according to Lord Stern, the
author of a 2006 report on the economics of climate change.
Writing in the Guardian, the crossbench peer said the
flooding and storm damage demonstrate the need for Britain and the rest of the
world to continue to implement low-carbon policies to reduce the probability of
greater tragedies in the future.
He said the five wettest years and the seven warmest years
in the UK have happened since 2000, which is explained by a clear body of
evidence showing that a warmer atmosphere contains more water and causes more
intense rainfall. When this is combined with higher sea levels in the English
Channel, the risk of flooding increases.
Recent UK weather is part of an international pattern of
extreme weather which proves the dangers of climate change and the need to cut
carbon emissions, Stern said.
"If we do not cut emissions, we face even more devastating
consequences, as unchecked they could raise global average temperature to 4C or more above pre-industrial
levels by the end of the century.
"The shift to such a world could cause mass migrations
of hundreds of millions of people away from the worst-affected areas. That
would lead to conflict and war, not peace and prosperity."
Stern, chair of the Grantham Research Institute on Climate
Change and the Environment at the London School of Economics, noted that
Australia has just had its hottest year on record, Argentina one of its worst
heatwaves in late December, while parts of Brazil were struck by floods and
landslides following record rainfall.
He said that delay is dangerous: "Inaction could be
justified only if we could have great confidence that the risks posed by
climate change are small. But that is not what 200 years of climate science is
telling us. The risks are huge."
Britain must continue to implement the 2008 Climate Change
Act, he said. This commits the UK to cut its emissions by at least 80% by 2050.
Stern said that the risks were greater than he anticipated
in his 2006 report for the government. "Since then, annual greenhouse gas
emissions have increased steeply and some of the impacts, such as the decline
of Arctic sea ice, have started to happen much more quickly.
"We also underestimated the potential importance of
strong feedbacks, such as the thawing of the permafrost to release methane, a
powerful greenhouse gas, as well as tipping points beyond which some changes in
the climate may become effectively irreversible."
 |
Satellite image shows scale of storm that hit the UK.
Photograph: Neodass/University of Dundee/PA
Climate change is here now and it could lead to global
conflict
Extreme weather events in the
UK and overseas are part of a growing pattern that it would be very unwise for
us, or our leaders, to ignore, writes the author of the influential 2006 report
on the economics of climate change
Nicholas Stern
The Guardian, Friday 14 February 2014 / The Guardian / http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2014/feb/13/storms-floods-climate-change-upon-us-lord-stern
The record rainfall and storm surges that have brought
flooding across the UK are a clear sign that we are already experiencing the
impacts of climate change.
Many commentators have suggested that we are suffering from
unprecedented extreme weather. There are powerful grounds for arguing that this
is part of a trend.
Four of the five wettest years recorded in the UK have
occurred from the year 2000 onwards. Over that same period, we have also had
the seven warmest years.
That is not a coincidence. There is an increasing body of
evidence that extreme daily rainfall rates are becoming more intense, in line
with what is expected from fundamental physics, as the Met Office pointed out
earlier this week.
A warmer atmosphere holds more water. Add to this the
increase in sea level, particularly along the English Channel, which is making
storm surges bigger, and it is clear why the risk of flooding in the UK is
rising.
But it is not just here that the impacts of climate change
have been felt through extreme weather events over the past few months.
Australia has just had its hottest year on record, during which it suffered
record-breaking heatwaves and severe bushfires in many parts of the country.
And there has been more extreme heat over the past few weeks.
 |
A ship washed ashore by typhoon Haiyan at Anibong in
Tacloban, Philippines, 5 February 2014. Photograph: Mark Tran for The Guardian
Argentina had one of its worst heatwaves in late December,
while parts of Brazil were struck by floods and landslides following record
rainfall.
And very warm surface waters in the north-west Pacific
during November fuelled Typhoon Haiyan, the strongest tropical cyclone to make
landfall anywhere in the world, which killed more than 5,700 people in the
Philippines.
This is a pattern of global change that it would be very
unwise to ignore.
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change last September
pointed to a changing pattern of extreme weather since 1950, with more
heatwaves and downpours in many parts of the world, as the Earth has warmed by
about 0.7C.
The IPCC has concluded from all of the available scientific
evidence that it is 95% likely that most of the rise in global average
temperature since the middle of the 20th century is due to emissions of
greenhouse gases, deforestation and other human activities.
The upward trend in temperature is undeniable, despite the
effects of natural variability in the climate which causes the rate of warming
to temporarily accelerate or slow for short periods, as we have seen over the
past 15 years.
If we do not cut emissions, we face even more devastating
consequences, as unchecked they could raise global average temperature to 4C or more above pre-industrial
levels by the end of the century.
This would be far above the threshold warming of 2C that countries have already
agreed that it would be dangerous to breach. The average temperature has not
been 2C
above pre-industrial levels for about 115,000 years, when the ice-caps were
smaller and global sea level was at least five metres higher than today.
 |
Sussex police search and rescue officers evacute residents
through a flooded street in Egham, Surrey. Photograph: Sang Tan/AP
 |
Satellite photos of the river Parrett on the Somerset Levels
taken before the recent flooding and on 8 February. Photograph: UK Space
Agency/SWNS.com
|
The shift to such a world could cause mass migrations of
hundreds of millions of people away from the worst-affected areas. That would
lead to conflict and war, not peace and prosperity.
In fact, the risks are even bigger than I realised when I
was working on the review of the economics of climate change for the UK
government in 2006. Since then, annual greenhouse gas emissions have increased
steeply and some of the impacts, such as the decline of Arctic sea ice, have
started to happen much more quickly.
We also underestimated the potential importance of strong
feedbacks, such as the thawing of the permafrost to release methane, a powerful
greenhouse gas, as well as tipping points beyond which some changes in the
climate may become effectively irreversible.
What we have experienced so far is surely small relative to
what could happen in the future. We should remember that the last time global
temperature was 5C
different from today, the Earth was gripped by an ice age.
So the risks are immense and can only be sensibly managed by
reducing greenhouse gas emissions, which will require a new low-carbon
industrial revolution.
History teaches us how quickly industrial transformations
can occur through waves of technological development, such as the introduction
of electricity, based on innovation and discovery.
We are already seeing low-carbon technologies being deployed
across the world, but further progress will require investment and facing up to
the real prices of energy, including the very damaging emissions from fossil
fuels
Unfortunately, the current pace of progress is not nearly
rapid enough, with many rich industrialised countries being slow to make the
transition to cleaner and more efficient forms of economic growth.
The lack of vision and political will from the leaders of
many developed countries is not just harming their long-term competitiveness,
but is also endangering efforts to create international co-operation and reach
a new agreement that should be signed in Paris in December 2015.
 |
Christian Gander makes his way through floodwater as he
leaves his home on Waterworks Road in Worcester. Photograph: Joe Giddens/PA
Delay is dangerous. Inaction could be justified only if we
could have great confidence that the risks posed by climate change are small.
But that is not what 200 years of climate science is telling us. The risks are
huge.
Fortunately poorer countries, such as China, are showing
leadership and beginning to demonstrate to the world how to invest in
low-carbon growth.
The UK must continue to set an example to other countries.
The 2008 Climate Change Act, which commits the UK to cut its emissions by at
least 80% by 2050, is regarded around the world as a model for how politicians
can create the kind of clear policy signal to the private sector which could
generate billions of pounds of investment. Weakening the Act would be a great
mistake and would undermine a strong commitment made by all of the main
political parties.
Squabbling and inconsistent messages from ministers, as well
as uncertainty about the policies of possible future governments, are already
eroding the confidence of businesses. Government-induced policy risk has become
a serious deterrent to private investment.
 |
A car lies half submerged after the Thames flooded in
Datchet, Berkshire. Photograph: Peter Macdiarmid/Getty Images
Instead, the UK should work with the rest of the European
Union to create a unified and much better functioning energy market and power
grid structure. This would also increase energy security, lower costs and
reduce emissions. What better way is there to bring Europe together?
The government will also have to ensure the country becomes
more resilient to those impacts of climate change that cannot now be avoided,
including by investing greater sums in flood defences.
It should resist calls from some politicians and parts of
media to fund adaptation to climate change by cutting overseas aid. It would be
deeply immoral to penalise the 1.2 billion people around the world who live in
extreme poverty.
In fact, the UK should be increasing aid to poor countries
to help them develop economically in a climate that is becoming more hostile
largely because of past emissions by rich countries.
A much more sensible way to raise money would be to
implement a strong price on greenhouse gas pollution across the economy, which
would also help to reduce emissions. It is essential that the government seizes
this opportunity to foster the wave of low-carbon technological development and
innovation that will drive economic growth and avoid the enormous risks of
unmanaged climate change.
• Nicholas Stern is chair of the Grantham Research Institute
on Climate Change and the Environment at the LSE and president of the British
Academy.
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